Tomahawk Inventory
We've been discussing cruise missile use in the A2/AD penetration scenario, specifically, and combat in general. Just a quick reminder that our total Tomahawk inventory is estimated at around 3000 missiles. That's not a lot in the context of a major peer war.
It's easy to postulate cheap commercial ships loaded with cruise missiles (an arsenal ship, essentially), actual high density Arsenal Ships, or other very large capacity cruise missile launch ships (or even aircraft!) but with a total inventory of only 3000, there quickly comes a point where you wind up with far more launch cells than missiles.
Further, the risk of concentration is real. Suppose we design a platform that can carry 300 cruise missiles (to pick an arbitrary number). If it gets destroyed, we've instantaneously lost one tenth of our total inventory. There's a lot to be said for distribution of inventory (the Hughes small combatant philosophy, to an extent).
Finally, we are quick to assume that we can ramp up production but that isn't really the case. Cruise missiles are not like simple bombs in WWII. They require sophisticated electronics among other components. That can't be instantly and infinitely ramped up. Even if they could, the cost of $2M per is a consideration.
So, hypothesize away but bear some of the realities of modern weapons in mind!
It's easy to postulate cheap commercial ships loaded with cruise missiles (an arsenal ship, essentially), actual high density Arsenal Ships, or other very large capacity cruise missile launch ships (or even aircraft!) but with a total inventory of only 3000, there quickly comes a point where you wind up with far more launch cells than missiles.
Further, the risk of concentration is real. Suppose we design a platform that can carry 300 cruise missiles (to pick an arbitrary number). If it gets destroyed, we've instantaneously lost one tenth of our total inventory. There's a lot to be said for distribution of inventory (the Hughes small combatant philosophy, to an extent).
Finally, we are quick to assume that we can ramp up production but that isn't really the case. Cruise missiles are not like simple bombs in WWII. They require sophisticated electronics among other components. That can't be instantly and infinitely ramped up. Even if they could, the cost of $2M per is a consideration.
So, hypothesize away but bear some of the realities of modern weapons in mind!
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